Gallup and GWU/Battleground show a 2 and 3 point race, respectively, plus a strong correlation to Wall Street moves.  This begs the question, will the stock market and Joe the Plumber team up to help Sen. John McCain win this election?

Gallup’s traditional measure is down to 2 points for Obama.

You can easily see how Gallup’s biggest margins for Obama correspond with really bad days on Wall Street having occurred just before polling and vice versa.  This is clearly visible for all three of the wide margins Obama enjoyed after the market dips of 9-10 Oct, 15-17 Oct., and 22-24 Oct.

The George Washington University (GWU) / Battleground poll shows a similar link to the stock market, with Obama’s best marks coming during the main market meltdown.

With the Dow going up 11 percent today, will Gallup show a dead even race by the end of the week?  Will that be enough to offset what may have been an early vote advantage for Obama?  If the market holds steady, it may indeed be a very long night on November 4th.  As they say, it’s not over ’til it’s over.

Keep the faith and keep working hard.   McCain/Palin - http://www.johnmccain.com

Tags: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Gallup Poll, GWU/Battleground Poll, McCain-Palin, Obama-Biden

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